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S&P 5007,736.52+1.79%
NASDAQ 10029,733+3.32%
Shanghai Composite3,873.56+1.34%
Nikkei 22566,132+3.40%
NIFTY 5024,614+0.00%
DAX26,202+0.77%
FTSE 10010,879+0.20%
CAC 408,666.63+0.61%
S&P/TSX Composite35,802+1.63%
KOSPI6,622.11+4.14%
TAIEX44,541+2.72%
Brent Crude$78.89-5.83%
WTI Crude$75.15-6.46%
Gold$4,192+3.93%
Silver$61.01+5.81%
Copper$6.65+2.04%
Aluminum$3,405.25+2.11%
Iron Ore$93.66-4.43%
Soybeans$1,178.25+0.81%
Natural Gas$2.69-3.09%
Global economyIndependent weekly intelligence

The macro story, organized.

Growth, inflation, employment, business activity, and energy indicators in one evidence-led view—so you can separate the current signal from the prevailing narrative.

Updated Aug 4, 2026Next briefing Aug 9, 2026

Pillars

5

Macro categories

Format

2–3Y

Historical context

Read

Fast

Notes included

Global Macro Snapshot

LATEST AVAILABLE
1.5%
GDP
US QoQ
52
Global PMI
Composite
3.73%
Inflation
US CPI YoY
4.2%
Unemployment
US Rate
197K
Initial Claims
US Weekly
$78.89
Oil
Brent $/bbl
🌐

PMI

🇨🇳

China Manufacturing PMI

Jun 2026 · China

50.3 Index
▲ 0.3 vs prev 50.0 Index
China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June from 50.0 in May, returning to expansion territory. This is the NBS official PMI, not the separate S&P Global/RatingDog survey. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, released July 1, 2026.
🇮🇳

India Manufacturing PMI

Jul 2026 (flash) · India

53.9 Index
▼ 0.3 vs prev 54.2 Index
India's flash manufacturing PMI eased to 53.9 in July from June's final 54.2, signalling continued but slower expansion. This is a preliminary estimate; the final July reading is due in early August. Source: HSBC India / S&P Global, released July 24, 2026.
🇹🇼

Taiwan Manufacturing PMI

Jun 2026 · Taiwan

55.2 Index
▼ 0.9 vs prev 56.1 Index
The S&P Global Taiwan Manufacturing PMI eased to 55.2 in June from 56.1 in May, while remaining firmly above the 50.0 expansion threshold. This card uses the S&P Global series, not Taiwan's separate NDC PMI. Source: S&P Global, June 2026 final release.
🇰🇷

South Korea Manufacturing PMI

Jun 2026 · South Korea

52.1 Index
▼ 2.7 vs prev 54.8 Index
The S&P Global South Korea Manufacturing PMI cooled to 52.1 in June from 54.8 in May, but remained above the 50.0 expansion threshold. Source: S&P Global, June 2026 final release.
🇮🇳

India Services PMI

Jul 2026 (flash) · India

53.1 Index
▼ 4.3 vs prev 57.4 Index
India's flash services PMI fell to 53.1 in July from June's final 57.4, indicating the weakest expansion since February 2022. This is a preliminary estimate; the final July reading is due in early August. Source: HSBC India / S&P Global, released July 24, 2026.
📈

Growth

🇺🇸

US GDP Growth

Apr 2026 · United States

1.5 % QoQ
▼ 0.6 vs prev 2.1 % QoQ
US real GDP grew at a 2.1% annualised pace in Q1 2026, accelerating from 0.5% in Q4 2025. Source: BEA via FRED (A191RL1Q225SBEA).
🇨🇳

China GDP Growth

Q2 2026 · China

4.3 % YoY
▼ 0.7 vs prev 5 % YoY
China's real GDP expanded 4.3% YoY in Q2 2026, slowing from 5.0% in Q1. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, released July 17, 2026.
🇮🇳

India GDP Growth

Q4 FY2025-26 · India

7.8 % YoY
▲ 0 vs prev 7.8 % YoY
India's real GDP expanded 7.8% YoY in Q4 FY2025-26 (Jan-Mar 2026). Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation provisional estimates, 2022-23 base year, released June 5, 2026.
👷

Employment

🇺🇸

US Initial Jobless Claims

Jul 2026 · United States

197 K
▲ 9 vs prev 188 K
US initial jobless claims fell to 187K in the week ended July 18 from 209K in the prior week, remaining near multi-month lows. Source: US Department of Labor via FRED (ICSA).
🇺🇸

US Unemployment Rate

Jun 2026 · United States

4.2 %
▼ 0.1 vs prev 4.3 %
Unemployment ticked down to 4.2% in June from 4.3%, a modest improvement even as hiring slowed sharply, suggesting a labour market that is cooling without breaking.
💹

Inflation

🇺🇸

US CPI (SA Index)

Jun 2026 · United States

3.73 % YoY
▼ 0.54 vs prev 4.27 % YoY
Year-over-year change calculated from FRED CPIAUCSL, the seasonally adjusted CPI index. This methodology produced 3.73% for June; the BLS headline unadjusted CPI reading was 3.5% YoY.
🇺🇸

US PPI Inflation

Jun 2026 · United States

5.51 % YoY
▼ 0.46 vs prev 5.97 % YoY
US Producer Price Index (Final Demand) measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers — often a leading indicator for CPI. Source: BLS via FRED (PPIFIS).
⚡

Energy

🌍

Brent Crude Oil

Aug 5, 2026 · Global

78.89 USD/bbl
▼ 6.18 vs prev 84.09 USD/bbl
Brent crude fell to $78.89/bbl, down 6.2% on the week from $84.09, as reports of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz drained the war premium out of crude. Prices remain about 9.6% higher over the past month. Source: Yahoo Finance (BZ=F).
🔥

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Aug 5, 2026 · United States

2.69 USD/MMBtu
▲ 1.24 vs prev 2.66 USD/MMBtu
Henry Hub natural gas edged up to $2.69/MMBtu from $2.66 a week earlier, a modest bounce that still leaves it down about 17% over the past month. Strong domestic production and comfortable storage keep prices near the low end of the 2026 range. Source: Yahoo Finance (NG=F).

Economic Commentary

Auto-generated macro notes · Jul 2026

AUTO
🇺🇸

US GDP Growth softened to 1.5 % QoQ in Apr 2026, retreating from 2.1 — momentum warranted monitoring.

🇨🇳

China GDP Growth softened to 4.3 % YoY in Q2 2026, retreating from 5 — momentum warranted monitoring.

🇮🇳

India GDP Growth held steady at 7.8 % YoY in Q4 FY2025-26.

🇺🇸

US Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 197 K in Jul 2026, up 9 from 188 — a headwind to watch.

🇺🇸

US Unemployment Rate declined to 4.2 % in Jun 2026, easing from 4.3 — a positive macro development.

🇨🇳

China Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 Index in Jun 2026, up from 50.0 — signalling continued expansion.

🇮🇳

India Manufacturing PMI softened to 53.9 Index in Jul 2026 (flash), retreating from 54.2 — momentum warranted monitoring.

🇹🇼

Taiwan Manufacturing PMI softened to 55.2 Index in Jun 2026, retreating from 56.1 — momentum warranted monitoring.

🇰🇷

South Korea Manufacturing PMI softened to 52.1 Index in Jun 2026, retreating from 54.8 — momentum warranted monitoring.

🇮🇳

India Services PMI softened to 53.1 Index in Jul 2026 (flash), retreating from 57.4 — momentum warranted monitoring.

🇺🇸

US CPI (SA Index) declined to 3.73 % YoY in Jun 2026, easing from 4.27 — a positive macro development.

🇺🇸

US PPI Inflation declined to 5.51 % YoY in Jun 2026, easing from 5.97 — a positive macro development.

🌍

Brent Crude Oil declined to 78.89 USD/bbl in Aug 5, 2026, easing from 84.09 — a positive macro development.

🔥

Natural Gas (Henry Hub) climbed to 2.69 USD/MMBtu in Aug 5, 2026, up 0.03 from 2.66 — a headwind to watch.

Commentary is auto-generated from data. Replace with your own analysis in the Blog section.