Finance with Kunal
AI briefingIndependent weekly intelligence

Follow the AI story.

Capital expenditure, AI revenue, hardware supply signals, electricity demand, private rounds, and job-cut attribution in one view—with every figure sourced and dated.

Last updated: Sep 20, 2026

2026 capex

$720–745B

Company-wide · four hyperscalers

Q2 VC share

>70%

Jul 1 global snapshot

AI rank

4th

August layoff reasons

AI stocks vs major global markets

Equal-weighted basket of 28 AI-exposed listings against 12 major global indices · all in USD, rebased to 100 · Oct 2023 – Sep 2026

Ranked · Oct 2023 – Sep 2026

AI basket

+360.9%

Rank

1 of 13

Best index

🇹🇼 +191.9%

Best–worst stock spread

1468pp

Over this window the basket returned +360.9%, ranking 1 of 13 in a field with 12 selected major indices — best of them TAIEX at +191.9%, weakest NIFTY 50 at +3.2%. Inside the basket 000660 returned +1488.8% and NOW +21.2%, a 1468 point spread within the same theme — measured across the 27 names that traded for the whole window, since the other 1 listed part-way through it. The displayed basket is an equal-weighted index chained off weekly returns, so a constituent that lists mid-window joins without dropping the line. To isolate rebalancing from those membership changes, the 27 full-window names returned +342.8% with weekly rebalancing versus +353.0% when bought equal-weighted at the start and held. Equal rather than cap weighting either way, so the basket answers how the typical AI name did rather than restating the index. Every line is in US dollars — each daily close converted at that day’s rate before anything is derived — so returns for non-US listings and indices include exchange-rate movements against the dollar. Price returns only, so dividends are excluded. Membership is a judgement call and the basket is not investable.

The AI stack, priced

28 listings · all prices and returns in USD · grouped by layer, not sector · not ranked · hover a chart for the value at that point · close of 2026-09-21

CompanyLast (USD)Change
Jan – Sep 2026
Models, clouds & applicationsSell the output — where AI revenue is actually booked
MSFT
🇺🇸Microsoft
$493.78
-0.80% 1D
1W-0.37%
1M+1.96%
YTD+4.41%
GOOGL
🇺🇸Alphabet
$349.54
+0.64% 1D
1W+3.26%
1M+1.40%
YTD+10.91%
AMZN
🇺🇸Amazon
$253.71
+1.00% 1D
1W-1.20%
1M-4.56%
YTD+12.01%
META
🇺🇸Meta Platforms
$665.75
-2.43% 1D
1W+2.73%
1M+21.93%
YTD+2.36%
PLTR
🇺🇸Palantir
$177.64
+0.79% 1D
1W+6.22%
1M+1.40%
YTD+5.83%
NOW
🇺🇸ServiceNow
$135.47
-2.17% 1D
1W+2.22%
1M+6.50%
YTD-8.12%
BABA
🇨🇳Alibaba (ADR)
$113.24
+4.33% 1D
1W+3.60%
1M-12.15%
YTD-27.29%
Silicon & equipmentSell the compute, and the machines that make it
NVDA
🇺🇸NVIDIA
$222.27
+1.34% 1D
1W+1.82%
1M+2.16%
YTD+17.70%
AVGO
🇺🇸Broadcom
$357.61
+2.97% 1D
1W-1.21%
1M-1.34%
YTD+2.87%
AMD
🇺🇸AMD
$559.82
+2.70% 1D
1W+8.46%
1M+20.02%
YTD+150.51%
TSM
🇹🇼TSMC (ADR)
$434.67
+1.02% 1D
1W+0.33%
1M+5.48%
YTD+36.00%
ASML
🇳🇱ASML (ADR)
$1679.92
+3.08% 1D
1W-1.08%
1M-4.10%
YTD+44.35%
MU
🇺🇸Micron
$1015.80
+3.92% 1D
1W+4.16%
1M+8.40%
YTD+222.05%
ARM
🇬🇧Arm Holdings
$275.61
+4.04% 1D
1W+4.09%
1M+10.54%
YTD+140.22%
MRVL
🇺🇸Marvell
$244.25
+1.45% 1D
1W+3.45%
1M+2.94%
YTD+173.24%
8035
🇯🇵Tokyo Electron
$340.17
JPY+4.12% 1D
1W+2.12%
1M-0.33%
YTD+44.60%
Power, cooling & interconnectSell the building, the electricity and the network
VRT
🇺🇸Vertiv
$249.39
+3.27% 1D
1W-2.98%
1M-4.45%
YTD+42.01%
ANET
🇺🇸Arista Networks
$199.39
-0.07% 1D
1W-0.10%
1M+6.94%
YTD+49.24%
ETN
🇺🇸Eaton
$424.77
+3.74% 1D
1W-0.14%
1M+0.02%
YTD+29.78%
CEG
🇺🇸Constellation Energy
$254.71
-3.08% 1D
1W-10.55%
1M-7.10%
YTD-30.45%
GEV
🇺🇸GE Vernova
$940.33
+1.66% 1D
1W-1.77%
1M-4.77%
YTD+38.38%
EQIX
🇺🇸Equinix
$1021.34
-0.45% 1D
1W-1.58%
1M-5.18%
YTD+33.66%
SU
🇫🇷Schneider Electric
$322.36
EUR+1.39% 1D
1W-4.30%
1M-5.69%
YTD+15.73%
Systems & memoryAssemble the racks; supply the tightest input in the chain
SMCI
🇺🇸Super Micro
$39.09
-3.12% 1D
1W-2.52%
1M+6.86%
YTD+26.26%
DELL
🇺🇸Dell Technologies
$568.06
-3.46% 1D
1W+0.14%
1M+29.83%
YTD+344.49%
000660
🇰🇷SK hynix
$1354.08
KRW+0.59% 1D
1W+7.29%
1M+8.86%
YTD+188.75%
005930
🇰🇷Samsung Electronics
$197.53
KRW+4.41% 1D
1W+6.67%
1M-2.41%
YTD+121.92%
2317
🇹🇼Hon Hai (Foxconn)
$7.85
TWD-0.20% 1D
1W+0.05%
1M+1.79%
YTD+5.91%

Listed for reference, not as recommendations, and not investment advice. Membership is a judgement call, not a definition — there is no official “AI sector”, and most of these companies earn plenty of revenue that has nothing to do with AI. Prices and returns are in US dollars for every row, including the Korean, Japanese, Taiwanese and European listings: each daily close is converted at that day’s rate before anything is derived from it, so a return here is what a dollar investor actually earned, currency move included. An arrow marks the currency a row trades in.

What AI actually earns

Disclosed AI revenue and run rates · USD · reported segments and call commentary are labelled separately

NVIDIA Data Center and Google Cloud are reported segments, though neither is AI-only. TSMC’s high-teens share is management’s company-defined accelerator revenue mix — GPUs, ASICs and HBM controllers, excluding CPUs — not a standalone segment. Amazon’s run rate is call commentary; Anthropic and OpenAI are private. Run rate annualises a recent period — it is not revenue earned. Microsoft stopped disclosing an AI-specific figure after FY26 Q2, which is why it is absent.

Company-wide capex at four hyperscalers

Latest company-wide 2026 guidance vs prior-year actuals · definitions differ · USD billions

$720745B

Combined $720745B against $409B on the displayed prior-year series. These are company-wide plans, not AI-only budgets, and their definitions differ. Microsoft’s current calendar-2026 figure reflects a finance-to-operating lease reclassification, so it is not directly comparable with its lease-inclusive prior-year bar even though management said underlying investment expectations were unchanged. The paler segment marks the portion of a published range still labelled “up to”. Prior-year bars come from a consistent calendar-quarter series — Epoch AI hyperscaler capex tracker (SEC 10-Q/10-K), inclusive of finance leases. Guidance is a revisable forecast, not a reported result.

Hardware constraints

Reported memory, foundry and lithography signals · monetary figures in USD

SK hynix’s card pairs company-wide quarterly revenue and operating margin with management’s HBM4 shipment commentary; the margin is not an HBM-only measure. TSMC’s monthly growth is also company-wide and is shown only as a high-frequency foundry-demand proxy, not an AI revenue breakout. SK hynix and ASML monetary figures are translated to USD using the official report-date Federal Reserve and ECB reference rates and rounded to the nearest $0.1B.

AI as the stated reason for job cuts

Share of announced US job cuts naming AI · monthly, 2026

This tracks employer attribution, not independently measured displacement. Challenger classifies the reason cited in announced US cuts; multiple factors may shape a restructuring, while unannounced hiring freezes and role changes are outside the count. Each monthly percentage uses that month’s announced cuts as its denominator. Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Private capital

Global venture funding in USD · Q1 Mar 31 and Q2 Jul 1 snapshots · selected announced AI rounds

Q1 2026Mar 31 snapshot · ≈80% of $300B reported as AI
Q2 2026Jul 1 snapshot · >70% of $205B reported as AI
CompanyAnnounced/committed (USD)Post-money (USD)Date
Crusoe
Series F · initial close; anticipated total · Atreides, Mubadala Capital, Valor Equity Partners
$3.9B$30.9BSep 2026
Profound
Series D · Sequoia, Kleiner Perkins
$0.18B$1.8BSep 2026
Databricks
Growth funding · Coatue, Blackstone, MGX, T. Rowe Price, Sixth Street Growth
$5B$190BAug 2026
Anthropic
Series H · Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, Sequoia
$65B$965BMay 2026
OpenAI
Late-stage · committed capital · Amazon, NVIDIA, SoftBank, Microsoft & others
$122B$852BMar 2026
Anthropic
Series G · GIC, Coatue, D. E. Shaw Ventures & others
$30B$380BFeb 2026

Q1’s ≈80% share and total preserve Crunchbase’s Mar 31 snapshot; Q2’s >70% share and total preserve its Jul 1 snapshot. The later revised H1 total is not backfilled into the quarter view because Crunchbase did not publish a revised split. Deal amounts are announced or committed, not necessarily funded on the announcement date. Crusoe’s amount is the anticipated full round at its initial close. August and September deals are excluded from the H1 concentration calculation. A post-money valuation is the negotiated price for preferred stock with its own terms, not a daily market capitalisation. This is the reported headline set, not a complete private-market league table.

Which US employer businesses are using AI

Nonfarm employer businesses · share using AI in any business function · by employment size · Aug 24–Sep 6, 2026

The national estimate is 23.2%. All 7 bars reproduce Census-published employment-size estimates for US nonfarm employer businesses in the Aug 24–Sep 6, 2026 reference period, released Sep 10, 2026; they are survey estimates rather than administrative counts. The size comparison is descriptive and does not by itself measure AI’s effect on output or employment. Source: US Census Bureau Business Trends and Outlook Survey.

How to read this page

Research reviewed Sep 21, 2026 · stock quotes refresh weekly

All monetary amounts are in USD. Figures originally reported in another currency use an official exchange rate from the source date and are marked as translated; rounded conversions should not be read as audited company disclosures.

Research figures come from company disclosures, Census survey data, funding announcements and published research. Census also provides a public API. Each source follows its own release schedule, so the review date can be newer than the reporting period. Every research figure links to its source and retains its publication date; annualized revenue, reported segments and company-wide spending plans are labelled separately.

The 28 listings in the stack table and the basket chart are Yahoo Finance closes on the same weekly cadence as the rest of the site, computed the same way as the Markets page.

Where a figure cannot be sourced it is absent rather than estimated. Notes beside the charts distinguish employer attribution, announced deal terms, company-wide capex and Census survey estimates so unlike measures are not presented as equivalent. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.