Finance with Kunal
AI briefingIndependent weekly intelligence

Follow the AI story.

Capital expenditure, AI revenue, hardware supply signals, electricity demand, private rounds, IPO setbacks, and job-cut attribution in one view—with every figure sourced and dated.

Last updated: Nov 6, 2026

2026 capex

$720–740B

Company-wide · four hyperscalers

Q3 VC share

64%

Oct 2 global snapshot

AI job cuts

1,265

October employer attribution

AI stocks vs major global markets

Equal-weighted basket of 28 AI-exposed listings against 12 major global indices · all in USD, rebased to 100 · Nov 2023 – Nov 2026

A–Z · Nov 2023 – Nov 2026

AI basket

+238.5%

Rank

1 of 13

Best index

🇹🇼 +121.8%

Best–worst stock spread

812pp

Over this window the basket returned +238.5%, ranking 1 of 13 in a field with 12 selected major indices — best of them TAIEX at +121.8%, weakest NIFTY 50 at +11.6%. Inside the basket MU returned +789.6% and NOW -22.1%, a 812 point spread within the same theme — measured across the 27 names that traded for the whole window, since the other 1 listed part-way through it. The displayed basket is an equal-weighted index chained off weekly returns, so a constituent that lists mid-window joins without dropping the line. To isolate rebalancing from those membership changes, the 27 full-window names returned +225.1% with weekly rebalancing versus +203.0% when bought equal-weighted at the start and held. Equal rather than cap weighting either way, so the basket answers how the typical AI name did rather than restating the index. Every line is in US dollars — each daily close converted at that day’s rate before anything is derived — so returns for non-US listings and indices include exchange-rate movements against the dollar. Price returns only, so dividends are excluded. Membership is a judgement call and the basket is not investable.

AI infrastructure IPO setbacks

Selected cases · reporting reviewed Nov 5, 2026 · original currencies retained

Public-market funding is testing the AI buildout. A withdrawn offering, a reported postponement and a weak debut have different consequences for issuers and investors.

Firmus

October 9, 2026

Offering withdrawn

The Australian AI cloud company abandoned its planned IPO before trading began and said it would pursue private capital and consider other options.

Data Center Dynamics

AirTrunk

Reported October 13, 2026

REIT IPO reportedly postponed

Reuters, citing two sources, reported that a proposed Singapore REIT listing targeting about US$1.5 billion in proceeds had been put on hold.

Reuters via MarketScreener

Elice

October 20, 2026

Completed IPO; weak debut

The offering raised about ₩201.1 billion. At 9:30 a.m. in Seoul on debut day, shares traded at ₩63,000 against a ₩90,500 offer price, a 30.39% decline. That is an intraday observation, not a closing return.

Seoul Economic Daily

Kunal’s read: The question is how much future cash flow today's share price assumes—and how much more capital is needed before that cash flow arrives. A lower valuation can make the next equity raise more dilutive and change the pace of construction. These setbacks put financing and execution risk in focus; they do not establish that demand for AI capacity has collapsed. Elice completed its capital raise, while AirTrunk’s postponement remains an attributed report. The cases are examples, not a sector-wide failure rate.

Read the full IPO analysis and sources

The AI stack, priced

28 listings · all prices and returns in USD · grouped by layer, not sector · not ranked · hover a chart for the value at that point · close of 2026-11-06

CompanyLast (USD)
52W range
Change
Jan – Nov 2026
Models, clouds & applicationsSell the output — where AI revenue is actually booked
BABA
🇨🇳Alibaba (ADR)
$109.45
+1.28% 1D
1W+11.64%
1M+3.55%
YTD-29.72%
GOOGL
🇺🇸Alphabet
$284.78
+0.78% 1D
1W+1.77%
1M-18.23%
YTD-9.64%
AMZN
🇺🇸Amazon
$259.30
-0.35% 1D
1W+7.88%
1M+2.06%
YTD+14.48%
META
🇺🇸Meta Platforms
$610.15
+0.84% 1D
1W-0.79%
1M-15.36%
YTD-6.19%
MSFT
🇺🇸Microsoft
$530.61
-0.99% 1D
1W+1.67%
1M+1.53%
YTD+12.19%
PLTR
🇺🇸Palantir
$160.38
+3.48% 1D
1W-12.89%
1M-19.32%
YTD-4.46%
NOW
🇺🇸ServiceNow
$101.97
-0.38% 1D
1W-3.00%
1M-27.03%
YTD-30.84%
Power, cooling & interconnectSell the building, the electricity and the network
ANET
🇺🇸Arista Networks
$170.80
+7.31% 1D
1W+1.15%
1M-19.04%
YTD+27.84%
CEG
🇺🇸Constellation Energy
$249.95
+4.30% 1D
1W-4.74%
1M-12.32%
YTD-31.75%
ETN
🇺🇸Eaton
$341.72
+4.50% 1D
1W-7.64%
1M-19.50%
YTD+4.40%
EQIX
🇺🇸Equinix
$1012.71
+1.54% 1D
1W-0.10%
1M+0.15%
YTD+32.53%
GEV
🇺🇸GE Vernova
$774.11
+0.47% 1D
1W-9.76%
1M-22.54%
YTD+13.92%
SU
🇫🇷Schneider Electric
$255.99
← EUR-1.35% 1D
1W-7.32%
1M-10.64%
YTD-8.10%
VRT
🇺🇸Vertiv
$182.86
+3.47% 1D
1W-21.35%
1M-24.97%
YTD+4.13%
Silicon & equipmentSell the compute, and the machines that make it
AMD
🇺🇸AMD
$449.04
+11.04% 1D
1W-11.05%
1M-27.65%
YTD+100.94%
ARM
🇬🇧Arm Holdings
$174.62
+4.74% 1D
1W-15.22%
1M-36.57%
YTD+52.20%
ASML
🇳🇱ASML (ADR)
$1424.75
+5.02% 1D
1W-9.01%
1M-19.50%
YTD+22.42%
AVGO
🇺🇸Broadcom
$293.69
+0.74% 1D
1W-9.93%
1M-18.45%
YTD-15.51%
MRVL
🇺🇸Marvell
$141.20
+5.73% 1D
1W-28.11%
1M-48.59%
YTD+57.96%
MU
🇺🇸Micron
$690.00
+5.12% 1D
1W-22.01%
1M-33.39%
YTD+118.76%
NVDA
🇺🇸NVIDIA
$186.64
+2.78% 1D
1W-8.80%
1M-19.02%
YTD-1.17%
8035
🇯🇵Tokyo Electron
$52.46
← JPY-5.08% 1D
1W-12.98%
1M-35.28%
YTD+11.51%
TSM
🇹🇼TSMC (ADR)
$375.44
+6.33% 1D
1W-7.56%
1M-18.02%
YTD+17.47%
Systems & memoryAssemble the racks; supply the tightest input in the chain
DELL
🇺🇸Dell Technologies
$328.53
+3.67% 1D
1W-22.57%
1M-42.82%
YTD+157.07%
2317
🇹🇼Hon Hai (Foxconn)
$6.78
← TWD-5.30% 1D
1W-10.05%
1M-15.90%
YTD-8.51%
005930
🇰🇷Samsung Electronics
$139.12
← KRW-7.48% 1D
1W-17.27%
1M-30.58%
YTD+56.30%
000660
🇰🇷SK hynix
$834.60
← KRW-11.52% 1D
1W-21.25%
1M-35.10%
YTD+77.97%
SMCI
🇺🇸Super Micro
$28.76
+6.20% 1D
1W-12.72%
1M-32.76%
YTD-7.11%

Listed for reference, not as recommendations, and not investment advice. Membership is a judgement call, not a definition — there is no official “AI sector”, and most of these companies earn plenty of revenue that has nothing to do with AI. Prices and returns are in US dollars for every row, including the Korean, Japanese, Taiwanese and European listings: each daily close is converted at that day’s rate before anything is derived from it, so a return here is what a dollar investor actually earned, currency move included. An arrow marks the currency a row trades in. The 52W bars show daily closing highs and lows over 52 calendar weeks, with the current price marked in the range. They use the same USD-converted daily prices, sourced from Yahoo Finance stock and FX history, and stay fixed when the chart window changes. Each bar’s tooltip gives its observation date and source.

What AI actually earns

Disclosed AI revenue and run rates · USD · reported segments and call commentary are labelled separately

The revenue evidence mixes periods and accounting bases. Anthropic’s $16.8B is reported Q3 revenue shared with investors; OpenAI’s roughly $50B is an annualized pace, net of partner shares. The earlier $70B comparison is superseded, and the $70B year-end figure in the newer report is a forecast. Neither is directly comparable with quarterly NVIDIA Data Center or Google Cloud segment revenue. These figures cannot be summed into one AI market total. TSMC’s FY2025 accelerator share and Microsoft’s retired standalone metric retain their separate treatment.

Company-wide capex at four hyperscalers

Latest company-wide 2026 guidance vs prior-year actuals · definitions differ · USD billions

$720–740B

Combined $720–740B against $409B on the displayed prior-year series. The scale of planned spending raises the importance of utilisation, revenue conversion and eventual returns; the plans alone cannot demonstrate any of them. These are company-wide budgets with different definitions. Microsoft reduced its calendar-2026 estimate to about $170B as third-party capacity deliveries shifted later. Its lease-recognition convention also differs from the lease-inclusive prior-year bar. The paler segment marks the portion of a published range still labelled “up to”. Prior-year bars come from a consistent calendar-quarter series — Epoch AI hyperscaler capex tracker (SEC 10-Q/10-K), inclusive of finance leases. Guidance is a revisable forecast, not a reported result.

The bill behind the buildout

Company-wide capex, two-cloud backlog, and global data-centre electricity demand

The spending plans show the scale of infrastructure commitments, while the cloud backlog offers a separate view of contracted demand. Backlog converts to revenue over time; it does not establish the return on that spending. The four capex plans include businesses beyond AI and use different lease conventions. The electricity figure is an IEA projection for 2030, not observed 2026 demand.

AI as the stated reason for job cuts

Share of announced US job cuts naming AI · monthly, 2026

This tracks employer attribution, not independently measured displacement. Challenger classifies the reason cited in announced US cuts; multiple factors may shape a restructuring, while unannounced hiring freezes and role changes are outside the count. Each monthly percentage uses that month’s announced cuts as its denominator. Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Private capital

Global venture funding in USD · Q1–Q3 2026 snapshots · selected announced AI rounds

Q1 2026Mar 31 snapshot · ≈80% of $300B reported as AI
Q2 2026Jul 1 snapshot · >70% of $205B reported as AI
Q3 2026Oct 2 snapshot · 64% of $159B reported as AI
CompanyAnnounced/committed (USD)Post-money (USD)Date
Anthropic
Series H · Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, Sequoia
$65B$965BMay 2026
Anthropic
Series G · GIC, Coatue, D. E. Shaw Ventures & others
$30B$380BFeb 2026
Basecamp Research
Series C · S32
$0.14B—Sep 2026
Crusoe
Series F · initial close; anticipated total · Atreides, Mubadala Capital, Valor Equity Partners
$3.9B$30.9BSep 2026
Databricks
Growth funding · Coatue, Blackstone, MGX, T. Rowe Price, Sixth Street Growth
$5B$190BAug 2026
EliseAI
New funding · round not specified · Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), Bessemer Venture Partners
$0.35B$4BSep 2026
Enveda
Series E · Catalio Capital Management
$0.311B—Sep 2026
Modulate
New funding · round not specified · Future Ventures; Hyperplane and Lakestar participating
$0.025B—Sep 2026
OpenAI
Late-stage · committed capital · Amazon, NVIDIA, SoftBank, Microsoft & others
$122B$852BMar 2026
Profound
Series D · Sequoia, Kleiner Perkins
$0.18B$1.8BSep 2026

Q3’s reported AI funding share is 64%, keeping AI central to the venture picture. Quarter-to-quarter comparisons require care: Q1’s ≈80% share and total preserve Crunchbase’s Mar 31 snapshot; Q2’s >70% share and total preserve its Jul 1 snapshot. The later revised H1 total is not backfilled into the quarter view because Crunchbase did not publish a revised split. Q3 uses the Oct 2 snapshot, published Oct 5; that release revised Q2 total funding to $212B. Quarter bars retain their original reporting vintages. Deal amounts are announced or committed, not necessarily funded on the announcement date. Crusoe’s amount is the anticipated full round at its initial close. Deals dated after June are excluded from the H1 concentration calculation. A post-money valuation is the negotiated price for preferred stock with its own terms, not a daily market capitalisation. This is the reported headline set, not a complete private-market league table.

Reported private-capital concentration

Global venture funding and AI's reported share · USD · Crunchbase snapshots

AI accounted for $102B of $159B in reported Q3 venture funding, about 64%. That remains a large concentration even though it is below the earlier Q1 and Q2 snapshots. The three H1 OpenAI and Anthropic announcements sum to $217B, about 42% of the later $515B H1 total. These figures mix announced or committed rounds with funding-database snapshots, so they do not measure cash deployed or investment returns. Quarter vintages and later revisions remain labelled. Reuters’ October 19 report describes talks for another roughly $30B OpenAI round; those prospective terms are excluded from the announced-round table and totals. Reported financing talks

Which US employer businesses are using AI/SI

Nonfarm employer businesses · share using AI in any business function · by employment size · Sep 21–Oct 4, 2026

The national estimate is 24.6%. All 7 bars reproduce Census-published employment-size estimates for US nonfarm employer businesses in the Sep 21–Oct 4, 2026 reference period, released Oct 22, 2026; they are survey estimates rather than administrative counts. The current workbooks call the technology “Super Intelligence (SI), formerly AI”; the labels here retain both terms. Larger firms report higher use than the smallest employers in this snapshot, indicating uneven adoption across firm sizes. The comparison is descriptive and does not by itself measure AI’s effect on output or employment. Source: US Census Bureau Business Trends and Outlook Survey. Employment-size source workbook

Adoption and cost-efficiency proxies

US employer-business use, paid seats, and estimated AI-chip performance per US dollar

The latest displayed Census estimate puts AI use at 24.6% of US nonfarm employer businesses for Sep 21–Oct 4, 2026, released Oct 22, 2026. Adoption therefore remains far from universal in this survey, despite the scale of infrastructure spending. Paid Copilot seats and chip throughput per dollar add distribution and cost context; they do not measure active use, productivity gains or returns on AI investment.

How to read this page

Research reviewed Nov 5, 2026 · stock quotes refresh weekly

Monetary figures use USD except the IPO case studies, which retain explicitly labelled original currencies. Other figures originally reported in another currency use the named exchange-rate source from the results date and are marked as translated; rounded conversions should not be read as audited company disclosures.

Research figures come from company disclosures, Census survey data, funding announcements and published research. IPO case studies link to dated reporting and distinguish withdrawals, reported postponements and completed offerings. Census also provides a public API. Each source follows its own release schedule, so the review date can be newer than the reporting period. Every research figure links to its source and retains its publication date; annualized revenue, reported segments and company-wide spending plans are labelled separately.

The 28 listings in the stack table and the basket chart use Yahoo Finance observations on the site’s weekly cadence. The AI comparison converts each daily close to USD before computing returns; Markets retains each instrument’s quoted currency. Different date windows, currency bases and equal-weighting can therefore produce different comparisons.

Where a figure cannot be sourced it is absent rather than estimated. Notes beside the charts distinguish employer attribution, announced deal terms, company-wide capex and Census survey estimates so unlike measures are not presented as equivalent. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.