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Nikkei 22566,132+3.40%
NIFTY 5024,614+0.00%
DAX26,202+0.77%
FTSE 10010,879+0.20%
CAC 408,666.63+0.61%
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TAIEX44,541+2.72%
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WTI Crude$75.15-6.46%
Gold$4,192+3.93%
Silver$61.01+5.81%
Copper$6.65+2.04%
Aluminum$3,405.25+2.11%
Iron Ore$93.66-4.43%
Soybeans$1,178.25+0.81%
Natural Gas$2.69-3.09%
United StatesIndependent weekly intelligence

The US economy, one lens at a time.

Growth, prices, jobs, policy rates, trade, fiscal flows, and business activity for the United States—each category read on its own terms, with consistent multi-year history.

Updated Aug 4, 2026Next briefing Aug 9, 2026

Indicators

13

Charted series

Lenses

8

Economic themes

History

2–3Y

Per-series context

Compare with Canada
📈

Growth

🇺🇸

US GDP Growth

Apr 2026 · United States

1.5 % QoQ
▼ 0.6 vs prev 2.1 % QoQ
US real GDP grew at a 2.1% annualised pace in Q1 2026, accelerating from 0.5% in Q4 2025. Source: BEA via FRED (A191RL1Q225SBEA).
💹

Inflation

🇺🇸

US CPI (SA Index)

Jun 2026 · United States

3.73 % YoY
▼ 0.54 vs prev 4.27 % YoY
Year-over-year change calculated from FRED CPIAUCSL, the seasonally adjusted CPI index. This methodology produced 3.73% for June; the BLS headline unadjusted CPI reading was 3.5% YoY.
🇺🇸

US PPI Inflation

Jun 2026 · United States

5.51 % YoY
▼ 0.46 vs prev 5.97 % YoY
US Producer Price Index (Final Demand) measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers — often a leading indicator for CPI. Source: BLS via FRED (PPIFIS).
👷

Employment

🇺🇸

US Initial Jobless Claims

Jul 2026 · United States

197 K
▲ 9 vs prev 188 K
US initial jobless claims fell to 187K in the week ended July 18 from 209K in the prior week, remaining near multi-month lows. Source: US Department of Labor via FRED (ICSA).
🇺🇸

US Unemployment Rate

Jun 2026 · United States

4.2 %
▼ 0.1 vs prev 4.3 %
Unemployment ticked down to 4.2% in June from 4.3%, a modest improvement even as hiring slowed sharply, suggesting a labour market that is cooling without breaking.
🇺🇸

US Nonfarm Payrolls

Jun 2026 · United States

57 K MoM
▼ 72 vs prev 129 K MoM
US nonfarm payrolls rose just 57K in June, a sharp step down from May's 129K and one of the weakest prints of the cycle — a clear signal that hiring momentum is fading. Source: BLS via FRED (PAYEMS).
🛒

Consumption

🇺🇸

US Retail Sales

Jun 2026 · United States

6.72 % YoY
▼ 0.61 vs prev 7.33 % YoY
US retail and food-services sales rose 6.72% YoY in June, easing from 7.33% in May while remaining strong. Source: US Census Bureau via FRED (RSAFS).
🏦

Rates & Yields

🇺🇸

US Fed Funds Rate

Jul 2026 · United States

3.63 %
▲ 0 vs prev 3.63 %
The effective federal funds rate held at 3.63% in June, unchanged from May. Source: Federal Reserve via FRED (FEDFUNDS).
🇺🇸

US 10Y Treasury Yield

Aug 2026 · United States

4.7 %
▲ 0.22 vs prev 4.48 %
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.69% in July from 4.50% in June, reflecting firmer inflation and policy-rate expectations. Source: FRED (DGS10).
🚢

Trade

🇺🇸

US Trade Balance

Jun 2026 · United States

-73.26 USD B
▲ 4.39 vs prev -77.65 USD B
The US goods-and-services trade deficit widened to $77.59B in May from $54.57B in April, increasing the near-term drag from net exports. Source: BEA via FRED (BOPGSTB).
🏛️

Fiscal

🇺🇸

US Federal Tax Receipts

Jan 2026 · United States

3,645.44 USD B
▼ 60.53 vs prev 3,705.97 USD B
US federal current tax receipts ran at a $3.65T annualised pace in Q1, easing from the prior quarter. Source: BEA via FRED (W006RC1Q027SBEA).
🌐

PMI

🇺🇸

US Manufacturing PMI

Jul 2026 (flash) · United States

53.8 Index
▼ 0.1 vs prev 53.9 Index
The flash S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI edged down to 53.8 in July from June's final 53.9. This preliminary reading remains above the 50.0 expansion threshold; the final July release is due in early August. Source: S&P Global, released July 24, 2026.
🇺🇸

US Services PMI

Jul 2026 (flash) · United States

53.6 Index
▲ 2.4 vs prev 51.2 Index
The flash S&P Global US Services PMI Business Activity Index rose to 53.6 in July from June's final 51.2, its strongest reading since November 2025. This is a preliminary estimate; the final July release is due in early August. Source: S&P Global, released July 24, 2026.

Economic Commentary

Auto-generated United States macro notes · Jul 2026

AUTO
🇺🇸

US GDP Growth softened to 1.5 % QoQ in Apr 2026, retreating from 2.1 — momentum warranted monitoring.

🇺🇸

US Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 197 K in Jul 2026, up 9 from 188 — a headwind to watch.

🇺🇸

US Unemployment Rate declined to 4.2 % in Jun 2026, easing from 4.3 — a positive macro development.

🇺🇸

US CPI (SA Index) declined to 3.73 % YoY in Jun 2026, easing from 4.27 — a positive macro development.

🇺🇸

US PPI Inflation declined to 5.51 % YoY in Jun 2026, easing from 5.97 — a positive macro development.

🇺🇸

US Nonfarm Payrolls softened to 57 K MoM in Jun 2026, retreating from 129 — momentum warranted monitoring.

🇺🇸

US Fed Funds Rate held steady at 3.63 % in Jul 2026.

🇺🇸

US 10Y Treasury Yield climbed to 4.7 % in Aug 2026, up 0.22 from 4.48 — a headwind to watch.

🇺🇸

US Trade Balance rose to -73.26 USD B in Jun 2026, up from -77.65 — signalling continued expansion.

🇺🇸

US Federal Tax Receipts softened to 3,645.44 USD B in Jan 2026, retreating from 3,705.97 — momentum warranted monitoring.

🇺🇸

US Retail Sales softened to 6.72 % YoY in Jun 2026, retreating from 7.33 — momentum warranted monitoring.

🇺🇸

US Manufacturing PMI softened to 53.8 Index in Jul 2026 (flash), retreating from 53.9 — momentum warranted monitoring.

🇺🇸

US Services PMI rose to 53.6 Index in Jul 2026 (flash), up from 51.2 — signalling continued expansion.

Commentary is auto-generated from data. Replace with your own analysis in the Blog section.